Euro Remains Below 1.5050 - Is It a Double Top?

The euro ended the past week marginally higher against the US dollar, but down significantly versus the commodity dollars as Credit Suisse Overnight Index Swap (OIS) rates shifted to price in fewer rate increases. Following the European Central Bank’s last policy decisions, OIS rates had been pricing in 98.5 basis points worth of hikes over the next 12 months, but eased back to pricing in 83.1 basis points worth of increases as of Friday’s close. From a technical perspective, EURUSD remains within an uptrend, but 1.5050 is a very clear barrier and a failure to break above in the near-term may signal a double top for the pair.