US Dollar Forecast Holds Key to Strategy Bias

Forex options market volatility expectations have once again dropped considerably to start the week’s trade, giving mixed outlook for trading strategy biases in the week ahead. Our 1-week volatility index trades at its lowest levels in nearly 14 months. Yet volatility expectations on key US Dollar pairs remain quite elevated—making forecasts very much unclear. Given such indecision, we will essentially keep a wait-and-see approach to broader trading strategies. The first several days of the week should give indication on whether we can expect big price moves and strong trends in the following days.

US Dollar’s Future in the Hands of Speculators

The dollar was able to manage its most aggressive rally against its chief counterpart (the euro) in months this past week; but the move would not last. Without a scheduled or unscheduled event to dramatically alter the dollar’s status in the well-worn carry trade, risk appetite would ensure the currency would remain shackled to its eight-month old bearish trend channel. Looking out over the week to come, the most pressing question for any trader is determining if and when the greenback will finally catalyze its next trend. Some may argue that direction is the primary concern; but without momentum and follow through, the result is fundamental chop that leaves the market open to volatility while slowly building up the pressure behind the eventual breakout. So, is there potential for a clear, dollar trend in the week ahead?

Euro Remains Below 1.5050 - Is It a Double Top?

The euro ended the past week marginally higher against the US dollar, but down significantly versus the commodity dollars as Credit Suisse Overnight Index Swap (OIS) rates shifted to price in fewer rate increases. Following the European Central Bank’s last policy decisions, OIS rates had been pricing in 98.5 basis points worth of hikes over the next 12 months, but eased back to pricing in 83.1 basis points worth of increases as of Friday’s close. From a technical perspective, EURUSD remains within an uptrend, but 1.5050 is a very clear barrier and a failure to break above in the near-term may signal a double top for the pair.

Japanese Yen Likely to Range Trade Against the US Dollar

Continued S&P 500 rallies made the safe-haven Japanese Yen the second-worst performing G10 currency to finish the week’s trade, finishing higher only against the similarly-downtrodden US Dollar. All major world equity indices finished anywhere from 2-3 percent above their weekly open except for the Japanese Nikkei 225—raising serious doubts on investor demand for Japanese financial asset classes and reflecting poorly on the domestic currency. Indeed, the fundamental arguments for Japanese Yen strengths are becoming increasingly scarce—especially through times of healthy financial market risk appetite.

British Pound Forecast Bullish Versus Euro but watch for BoE Surprises

The British Pound survived a week of fairly lackluster fundamental developments to trade marginally higher against the US Dollar, but a busy week of economic event risk may pose further challenges for the UK currency in the week ahead. Early-week news that Fitch Ratings took a “cautious” view on its outlook for the UK Government Bond’s AAA sovereign rating rattled markets and sent the Sterling instantly lower. The following Bank of England Quarterly Inflation report expressed a similarly cautious outlook for economic growth, and it seemed like the GBP was headed for a break of key support against the US dollar. Yet traders clearly had other things in mind, and the GBPUSD held key technical levels through the week’s close. Whether or not the pair can sustain its defense will likely depend on key event risk in the days ahead, setting the stage for another eventful week of British Pound price action.